NIOtime Estimate #1: September '20 Delivery Estimate
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Today we are officially launching NIOtime Estimate series which exclusively discusses the ins and outs of NIO monthly vehicle delivery estimate. In future, we will post NIOtime Estimate on the first day of each month, i.e. NIOtime Estimate #2 will publish on 1st November for October vehicle delivery expectation.
From our last weekly issue #4, we briefly talked about our estimate for September vehicle delivery. In this issue, we will discuss in depth on the revised estimate number. As a NIO long term investor, you would ask why do we concern about this delivery vehicle number.
In fact, the vehicle delivery number is a performance indicator on electric vehicle brands.
For instances, Tesla typically announces its delivery vehicle number by quarter while Chinese EV brand like NIO does report this number monthly. We view this as a good intel for investors to track the growth of EV company by delivered vehicle number. In addition, the total delivered vehicles number also reflects the EV company’s revenue which is a key metric in upcoming earning report. From the reported numbers, NIO investors would grasp an idea on how NIO is outperforming or struggling to meet its demand and production.
Alright, let’s back to our estimate topic today. We will talk about the revised delivery estimate, reported public survey response as well as expected delivery announcement date.
1. New Revised September Vehicle Delivery Estimate - 4,688
Last week NIOtime estimated the September Vehicle Delivery to be 4,199 (4,000-4,400). However, we observed that a few interesting points that lead to a revision of our initial estimate. First, a very high demand from NIO app on NIO vehicles accumulating from earlier months due to the revision of free lifetime NIO services policy due by 11st October. Second, Mr. Li Bin commented on Bloomberg with a positive tone and acknowledged pushing the production capability is a priority task for NIO to meet the strong demand in July & August.
Third, according to CNBC news and user’s tweet today, China’s passenger car sales sees 12% increase in September. This is exciting info despite earlier sales slowdown due to COVID19!
NIOtime is highly confidence that NIO will beat its own delivery guidance (11,000-11,500) from last quarter earning report. Given the fact on NIO production capability to produce 5,000 vehicle per month, NIOtime would expect the number closer to 5,000. Thus, NIOtime revised our September delivery estimate to 4,688 (4,488-4,888) which is about 132% YOY growth.
2. Public Survey Responses
Last week NIOtime launched two surveys recording delivery estimate from public targeting through NIOtime audiences (mainly from North America and Europe) and NIO App (mainly from China NIO car owners). The combined survey results can be viewed on this google sheet.
In summary, out of 9 entries, the average estimate is 4,730 and the median estimate is 4,800. This estimate is closed also to our own estimate. Please noted that the sample data is relative small and hopefully will get more public entries for the upcoming months.
3. NIO September Vehicle Delivery Expected Announcement Time
This month vehicle delivery announcement date is tricky as some of you may know that starting from 1st October till 7th October is China’s Golden Holiday Week.
NIOtime estimates that the date range for the announcement is between 5th October - 9th October.
10.05-10.09 - From past announcements, NIO would usually report on the first week or second week of each month and frequently on Monday and Thursday :
3rd September (Thursday)
3rd August (Monday)
2nd July (Thursday)
4th June (Thursday)
6th May (Wednesday)
7th April (Tuesday)
10th March (Tuesday)
10 February (Monday)
6th January (Monday)
Last year NIO reported the September ‘19 delivery vehicle number on one day after the holiday. The 8th October is likely the next potential date after the China Golden Holiday.
Regardless which date for the announcement, NIOtime is anticipating to witness another highest delivery record breaking by NIO. Let’s see what’s the final September delivery vehicle number! Please do comment the post below what you think of September delivery number.
One fun fact today is that both Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival and China National Day falls on the same day (October 1st) since last occurrence was 19 years ago.
It’s NIOtime, Blue Sky is Limitless!
I love You NIO ❤️
That survey is quite literally spot on with the actual delivery number of 4708 cars, you guys are doing a great job!