NIOtime #18: NIO's 2020 Reflections & 2021 Resolutions

Technical Chart. Media News Recap. NIO App Stories. All from a group of NIO global fans exclusively for the NIO community.

This week let’s welcome 81 new members to join us on board to grow together with NIO! We reached 1500 subscribers by the end of 2020. Thank you for your kind support!

Dear NIOtime gang,

Source: NIO Twitter

Happy NIO year to you all! We wish you all have a wonderful 2021. 2020 is the beginning year for the electrification trend. NIO has gone through ups and downs throughout the year. We are thankful to ride the EV trend with NIO since August. In this commentary, we will reflect on the major events in 2020 and share the top 7 new year resolutions for NIO in 2021. Let’s look at the technical chart first.

Technical Chart

This week NIO closed the week at $48.74 which is about 6.2% higher than last week’s closing price ($45.77). Noted on the BB band is getting narrower before another breakout to uptrend or downtrend. However, the MACD indicator showing a bullish cross over if we see NIO is continuing its upwards momentum next week. Now NIO is above from EMA21 ($46.03) and EMA8 ($46.94) and these two price levels can serve as short term support for NIO. The downward levels we would watch closely is lower BB band ($41.28) and MA50 ($42.88). The upper level we would watch closely is upper BB band ($49.70). If NIO can break upper BB brand, the previous high is the next resistance price level to watch for.

Let’s see NIO would reach to the December delivery number which likely to be announced on Monday and also the price reduction on Model Y MIC news yesterday.

This Week’s Top 4 Highlights by @theNIOtime

1. 2020 Reflections and Key Events from NIO

2. 7 New Year Resolution by NIOtime for NIO

3. NIO Power Update

4. NIO House & Space Update

News

1. 2020 Reflections and Key Events from NIO

Jan 20

• NIO Participated in China Electricity Council Battery Swap White Paper. NIOtime #10

• NIO formed COVID19 Help Group, Established User Trust Fund amounted $765K.

Feb 20

• NIO SUV EC6 Mass Production Launched at Hefei Facility

• NIO signed a strategic partnership framework agreement with Hefei City

Apr 20

• NIO ES8 Mass Production Launched, Officially delivering to NIO Users

• NIO signed Hefei agreement with a strategic cash injection of 7 Billion

May 20

• NIO ES6 awarded 2020 German Car Brand Best Design Prize

Jul 20

• NIO China signed a strategic partnership agreement with corporate banks amounted 10.4 Billion

• NIO produced 50,000 cars since launched

Aug 20

• NIO Offered 1st Secondary Stock Offering NIOtime #1

• NIO OS awarded 2020 German Red Point Design Prize

• NIO launched BaaS

Sep 20

• NIO awarded J.D. NEV Quality Champion for 2nd Year in a row. NIOtime #3

• NIO on 2020 Change the World Top 100 Company List: NIOtime #4

• NIO EC6 started delivery to NIO Users: NIOtime #2

• NIO launched Power Up Plan: NIOtime Special #1

Oct 20

• NIO China officially launched. NIOtime #6

• NIO launched FoodLab. NIOtime #7

• NIO Specific User Community Launched: NIOtime #8

Nov 20

• NIO launched 100 kWh and flexible upgrade plan NIOtime Special #2

• NIO celebrated sixth-year anniversary NIOtime #13

Dec 20

• NIO offered 2nd Secondary Stock Offering NIOtime #15

• NIO marked 200th NIO House Space NIOtime #17

• NIO opened first in nation charging route from Chengdu to Mount Everest NIOtime #17

2. 7 New Year Resolutions by NIOtime for NIO

1) NIO 2021 Delivery Wish – Delivers 90,000 units

NIO 2020 total car delivery is up until 36,721 with December delivery number pending. Our estimate for NIO December delivery number is 6,188. We are forecasting NIO can deliver roughly 42,909 for the year 2020. Based on this number, NIO YOY delivery is about 108%. 2020 is a beginning year for EV to gain market traction and this is going to increase in the years to come. We anticipate NIO 2021 Delivery to have similar YOY % growth, which gives us 90,900 units for 2021.

2) NIO Power Wish – Reaches 388 Power Swaps & 268 Power Chargers

So far in 2020 NIO has 172 Power Swaps and 100 Power Chargers. We anticipate NIO to build up to 388 Power Swaps and 268 Power Chargers in 2021. NIO's second-gen Power Swap is expected to be released in 2H 2021 with a deployment speed of one unit per day. According to the rumors, the second-gen Power Swap will have 3 times efficiency improvement, unmanned automation tech, more battery loading (likely between 7 to 14 batteries per station), and changing time speed under 3 minutes.  

3) NIO House & Space Wish – Reaches Total 388 (28 NIO Houses & 360 NIO Spaces)

So far in 2020 NIO has built 23 NIO Houses and 182 NIO Spaces. We wish NIO can expand its sales network as well as NIO House in major cities with dense populations in China as well as the international market. We are expecting NIO Houses and Spaces in Europe next year. This will mark NIO's important milestone of establishing its NIO brand ecosystem globally.

One crazy idea we have in mind for leveraging NIO space is to convert it into a Starbuck style coffee outlet for generating additional revenue (NIO has their own food lab team that crafts new drinks, desserts, and foods). However, this is not the main focus of NIO, which should be R&D, getting more users to buy into NIO, and building more charging facilities.

4) NIO Life Revenue Wish– Accounts 5% of NIO Car Sales Revenue in 2021.

So far in 2020 NIO has accumulated 87.55M in the first three quarters for other revenue streams including merchandise items sales on NIO Life. We wish NIO Life can achieve 5% of NIO car sales revenue in 2021. NIO Life is a growing segment of NIO which we shouldn’t overlook as a premium lifestyle brand. The vision of NIO establishing NIO life is to emphasize lifestyle experience revolving around your life from travel, home, tech, and etc.

5) NIO Global Market – Europe (Norway)

NIO has been talking about global market expansion all year in 2020 and promised to enter the global market next year. We anticipate 2021 will be a globalization year for NIO as well as a major challenge for NIO to bring its unique ecosystem (NIO App, Life, Power, House & Space). There is a rumor that NIO will enter Norway first next year. We would hope NIO focuses on refining and improvising the ecosystem fine-tuning to the international market. This is critical to watch and reflect on how NIO can engage with global users.

6) NIO Partnerships – Horizontal and Vertical Integration

NIO has established several partnerships with local, state, and the central government in 2020. We wish this trend of partnerships will be strengthened and increased throughout 2021. Given NIO as a premium EV platform, there are many rooms for imagination and collaboration in horizontal and vertical integration. For example, NIO has partnered with Suning (physical retail e-commerce), Double Happiness (sports fashion), iQiYi (video streaming), State Grid Enterprise (grid network & charging facilities), local governments like Hefei (funding for charging facilities), JAC (joint manufacturing factory), and many more to be listed. Next year we may expect NIO announcing partners in technology such as Lidar, autonomous driving, chips, etc.

7) NIO Stock Price – Price Target @ $96 by EOY 2021

In 2020 NIO stock price has skyrocketed 23X from $2.42 (last day of 2019) till $48.74 (last day of 2020). In brief, NIO has an incredible year in 2020 and we would expect NIO share price to appreciate steadily but not as crazy as 2020. In 2021 there may be some corrections given the ultimately high expectation of the capital market towards the general EV market. Provided NIO meeting our anticipated delivery in 2021, we would predict a price target at $96 by EOY 2021, which yields NIO a roughly 150B market cap.  

3. NIO Power Update: 169-174th Power Swap & 95-100th Power Charger

So far NIO has six new Power Swap stations and six new Power Charger stations, which sums up to 174 power swap stations and 100 power charger stations in China. (News Source: NIO App)

NIO Power Swap #169 | Municipal Government Center, Hefei

NIO Power Swap #170 | Kaixin Building, Wuhan

NIO Power Swap #171 | Red Star Macalline, Chengdu

NIO Power Swap #172 | Dachong, Shenzhen

NIO Power Swap #173 | Century Park, Haikou

NIO Power Swap #174 | Jiangbei New Area Central Business District, Nanjing

NIO Power Charger #95 | Beacon Gateway, Shantou

NIO Power Charger #96 | Huizhuan East Road, Chengdu

NIO Power Charger #97 | Shazhou Lake Hotel, Zhangjiagang

NIO Power Charger #98 | Zhongzhou Yimei Hotel, Jiaozuo

NIO Power Charger #99 | Suning Zhongshan International Golf Hotel, Nanjing

NIO Power Charger #100 | Fengtian Avenue, Shapingba District, Chongqing

4. NIO House and Space Update: 205th NIO Space

NIO Space # 205 | Xintang Hop Sing Hui, Guangzhou

NIO has one new NIO Space launching this week, which sums up to 205 NIO Houses and Spaces in China. On the first day of 2021, NIO announced 11 new NIO spaceS were launched. We will provide more info regarding the station locations once we get the info. For more photos, please kindly refer to our NIOtime Facebook photo albums here. (News Source: NIO App)

Summary

Once again, we wish you a Happy NIO Year 2021! We wish NIO can continue to keep up all the good works done in 2020 and we will grow up with NIO in 2021. Lastly, our 2021 new year’s resolution is reaching 8,888 subs by EOY! Thanks again for your support!

NIOtime @theniotime

Nio-nio-nio, reached target 1500 subs by today!! Beautiful gift from you all to end the year 2020! Thanks for supporting #niotime. We will grow up with $nio in 2021 and become your to-go media platform for @NIOGlobal. 2021 New Year’s Resolution --> 8,888 subs by eoy. Cheers!

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